The Fall and Fall of the TPLF
What’s the Chop?
There’s trouble in Ethiopia and civil war is looming. Tension between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has led to hundreds of deaths and the displacement of over 40,000 people into neighbouring Sudan.
The TPL-what?
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) started in 1975 as an armed liberation movement (a paramilitary group fighting for the rights of the Tigray people, one of the ethnic groups in Ethiopia). The TPLF came into power in 1991 after leading the overthrow of dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam who had ruled Ethiopia for 14 years.
After Megistu’s fall, a new government was formed — one that was mostly made up of the largest two ethnic groups (Oromo and Amhara) and the Tigray, represented by the TPLF. Still, the TPLF held most of the power — through the Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, was Tigrayan, as were those heading security forces and all critical sectors.
What went wrong?
The Oromo and Amhara had been unhappy with the authoritarian way TPLF ran things (there was loads of repression, favouritism for the Tigray region, jailing dissidents — you name it), Flash forward to 2012, Zenawi died, and his hand-picked successor, Halemariam Desalegn, took over. After he failed to quell tensions that led to about three years of protest, he resigned and the Amhara-Oromo part of the coalition shot their shot.
How did they do that?
The Amhara National Democratic and Oromo People’s Democratic Organization joined forces to end the TPLF dominance, by voting for the current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who is of mixed Amharic-Oromo origin. Abiy moved fast to counter TPLF’s dominance — he sacked senior TPLF government and army officials, privatized state corporations, changed the currency, and moved to broker peace with Eritrea, which further isolated the TPLF, who share a border with Eritrea.
In November 2019, Abiy made another move that may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back — he dissolved the ethnic-based coalition by forming a new political party, Prosperity Party. TPLF refused to join, which meant that all their cabinet appointments were fired. Everything came to a head at the planned 2020 elections.
What elections?
Things hit boiling point this year. Ethiopia was set to hold national and regional elections this year but these were postponed due to COVID-19. TPLF went ahead and conducted elections in Tigray in defiance, accusing Abiy’s government of being unconstitutional and overstaying its mandate. Abiy and the Ethiopian parliament called the elections illegal and cut funding to Tigray.
TPLF responded by allegedly attacking a military base in Mekelle, the region’s capital, leading Abiy to declare a military offensive with airstrikes on Tigray, accusing the TPLF of “criminal hubris and intransigence”. Around 500 civilians were killed in an attack along the Sudan border, with thousands fleeing into Sudan. Rockets also hit Eritrea’s capital, courtesy of TPLF — the group has accused Eritrea of supporting the Ethiopian government with troops and tanks against the Tigray community. As recently as November, the fighting has continued with Abiy announcing Mekelle’s capture on 28th November.
Your Takeaway.
The TPLF began in a bid to liberate Ethiopia from oppression and has progressed from rulers to rebels. While they have reiterated that they have no intention of giving up their fight, Prime Minister Abiy has also made clear his intention of not engaging in a dialogue.
It is important to be reminded that all sides lose in a war. Ethiopia is a regional powerhouse with over a 100 million people, and a military engaged in counter-terrorism within the region (its troops support the AU mission in Somalia). If left unchecked, the aftermath of this conflict will affect the people, economy, security and stability in not only Ethiopia, but the entire horn of Africa.
What can I do?
If you are in Ethiopia, share as much verifiable news on this conflict as you can, and for those outside, you can help by drawing attention to the conflict through social media, and follow the developments concerning the conflict.
